Published on April 2024
Climate scenarios expansion project
The future promises to be unpredictable, complex and volatile. Yet the current NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) climate scenarios used to stress test investment portfolios are limited: based on unrealistic assumptions, often understating the economic damage of climate change and failing to provide a holistic view of impacts (such as risks, conflicts, migrations, uncertainty, disruptions). Investors need better tools with which to assess real-world risks and opportunities in the short and long term.
This need was at the core of an open call by the investment firm Baillie Gifford, who are required to engage with a series of quantitative scenarios created by the Network for the Greening of the Financial System (NGFS), a group of key central banks. Baillie Gifford sought to add greater complexity to these scenarios through the development of more comprehensive, system-wide qualitative narratives. Deep Transitions responded with an approach grounded in evidence-based understandings of sustainability transitions, and the Climate Scenarios Expansion Project was launched. Read our short, summary case study in just ten minutes to learn more about what we did, how we did it and the results. You'll also find a link to the full project report at the end for further reading.
